The Greater Toronto Area's low-rise new home market has now outperformed its 10-year average for four consecutive months, a streak that points to a stronger pipeline for residential window and door manufacturers. Combined with a broader housing recovery call from RBC Economics and a development charge reduction program in Bradford West Gwillimbury, the data adds momentum to Ontario's fenestration outlook.
According to data from the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) and Altus Group, reported by REMI Network, there were 781 single-family home sales in July, a significant year-over-year increase and 50 per cent above the 10-year average. Single-family homes include detached, linked, and semi-detached houses and townhouses, excluding stacked townhouses. Total new home sales across the GTA reached 1,018 units in July, up from the record July low of 2025 but 40 per cent below the 10-year average.
The HST rebate program has been a key driver for the low-rise segment, while condominium apartments have continued to struggle to fully participate because rules around construction start and completion dates limit that part of the market. Condominium apartments accounted for 237 units sold in July, up 40 per cent from July 2025 but 80 per cent below the 10-year average.
On pricing, the average new condominium apartment sold for $1,054,938, up 2.5 per cent year over year, while the average new single-family home price was $1,362,433, down 8.5 per cent over the last 12 months. The figures are gross prices and do not reflect the HST rebate, allowing a like-on-like comparison. Remaining inventory across the GTA stood at 18,546 units, including 12,345 condominium apartment units and 6,201 single-family dwellings, representing a combined inventory level of 36.5 months based on average sales for the last 12 months.
Edward Jegg, research manager at Altus Group, said the single-family sector led July sales and that builders have been responding to the uptick with a steady flow of new low-rise product, keeping the sector in balance and avoiding upward pressure typically placed on pricing in a rising market. Dave Wilkes, president and CEO at BILD, said he has spoken to homebuyers who purchased new homes as a result of the HST rebate program and that they are thrilled with the program's impact on affordability and new homeownership. Wilkes added that such measures not only help new home buyers but also improve the region's economic outlook and protect jobs.
RBC sees Canada's housing market moving toward recovery
A separate report from RBC Economics said Canada's housing market appears to be moving toward recovery. Home resales have risen each month since April, with inventory levelling off and prices showing signs of stabilizing. Robert Hogue, an assistant chief economist at RBC, said the key to the outlook will be the extent to which sidelined homebuyers make their way to market. He estimates there could be hundreds of thousands of Canadians who put plans to buy a home on hold in the past several years due to sharp increases in ownership costs.
Hogue cautioned the process is unlikely to be smooth or uniform across the country, with prolonged market corrections in Ontario and British Columbia having lasting effects on sentiment. The condo market is expected to take longer to recover, as high inventory in Toronto and Vancouver along with investor apathy are likely to weigh on prices potentially into next year.
For 2026, RBC Economics projects home resales will fall 3.6 per cent to 453,200 units, with the benchmark price index declining 2.3 per cent to $794,200. The recovery is expected to be more visible next year, with sales growing 6.7 per cent to 483,600 units and benchmark home values rising 0.8 per cent to $800,700. Hogue noted the turnaround has come too late to prevent countrywide declines in home resales and prices this year. The report warns that recent escalations in the U.S. trade war and conflict in the Middle East could undermine confidence, and that borrowing costs appear to be as low as they will get this cycle, with the Bank of Canada expected to hold interest rates until the end of this year before raising its policy rate next year.
Bradford West Gwillimbury development charge cuts lower home costs
The Town of Bradford West Gwillimbury is set to receive up to $94.8 million from the federal and Ontario governments through the Development Charge Reduction Program after committing to reduce development charges by as much as 76 per cent, Ontario Construction News reported. The funding is intended to help the fast-growing Simcoe County municipality build water, road and other infrastructure to support new housing.
The town has committed to reducing development charges for residential construction for three years, from March 30, 2026, to March 31, 2029, a move officials say could support more than 29,000 new homes. The reductions are estimated to cut the cost of building a new home by as much as $36,500 per unit.
Reductions vary by housing type and location. For single and semi-detached homes, charges will be reduced by 47 per cent in urban and rural areas and by 30 per cent in Bond Head. Townhouse development charges will be reduced by 65 per cent in urban areas, 63 per cent in rural areas and 41 per cent in Bond Head. For two- and three-bedroom apartments, reductions will be 65 per cent in urban areas, 76 per cent in rural areas and 40 per cent in Bond Head. One-bedroom apartment charges will be reduced by 56 per cent in urban areas, 55 per cent in rural areas and 35 per cent in Bond Head.
Reductions still require approval by Bradford West Gwillimbury council and must remain in place for three years. Several major projects are expected to be impacted, including an upgrade to Plant D at the Bradford Water Pollution Control Plant, increased municipal water storage at the John Fennell Reservoir, widening and reconstruction of the Line 8 corridor from Sideroad 10 to Barrie Street, and new Church Well infrastructure. Municipalities participating in the program must contribute at least 10 per cent of project costs.
Premier Doug Ford said in a news release that the government is focused on lowering costs for families, keeping workers on the job and getting shovels in the ground faster on new homes. Municipal Affairs and Housing Minister Rob Flack said Ontario continues to deliver programs like the Development Charge Reduction Program alongside federal partners to support fast-growing communities. Bradford West Gwillimbury Mayor James Leduc said the $94.8 million funding will allow the municipality to develop the water, road and fire infrastructure needed for responsible growth.
What the data means for Ontario window and door suppliers
The combination of four consecutive months of above-average low-rise sales, a housing market recovery call from RBC, and development charge reductions in a high-growth municipality suggests a more active residential construction pipeline in Ontario. Single-family and low-rise projects typically require more windows and exterior doors per unit than high-rise condominium suites, so the shift toward low-rise sales is particularly relevant for fenestration manufacturers.
RBC's outlook for a gradual recovery in resales may also support renovation activity, although the report does not break out fenestration-specific spending. In Ontario, new residential windows and doors must comply with the Ontario Building Code, with product performance often referenced to CSA A440. Energy-efficiency programs such as ENERGY STAR Canada also shape replacement demand.
The HST rebate program remains a key variable, especially for the condominium segment, and municipal approvals in Bradford West Gwillimbury are not yet final. For now, the low-rise sales streak gives window and door suppliers a clearer view of near-term demand than they have had in several years.