ConstructConnect reported that "Canadian nonresidential construction starts have totalled $26.6 billion through the first half of 2026, the slowest pace through June in the last five years." The analysis, written by ConstructConnect associate economist Devin Bell, attributes the decline to a mix of trade uncertainty, a shrinking population and softer investment. For Canadian glazing contractors, whose storefront, curtain wall and window packages are specified after structural work gets underway, the numbers signal a leaner project pipeline through the rest of 2026 and into 2027.
The slowdown was not isolated. ConstructConnect found that seven of nine construction categories posted lower starts compared with the same period last year. Some of that decline reflects the high baseline set by a record 2025, but the breadth of the pullback still points to a market that is cooling on multiple fronts. That nuance matters for glazing contractors: after two years of unusually strong starts, a levelling off does not mean the market has collapsed, only that it is retreating from an exceptional peak.
Macroeconomic headwinds
The headwinds facing the Canadian economy have been building for several years, according to ConstructConnect. Cross-border trade with the United States has been turbulent over the past year and a half, beginning with U.S. tariffs levied against a wide variety of goods. The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) has shielded compliant goods from most of those tariffs, but even that arrangement is becoming more complicated. The United States did not renew the agreement by the July 1 deadline, pushing it to annual review through 2036. While that leaves years before expiration, the uncertainty makes long-range business planning more difficult.
Those trade hurdles and future murkiness weighed on the Canadian economy, dragging real exports down 5.2 per cent in Q1 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. That, along with broader economic weakness, pushed Canada into back-to-back GDP contractions in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Beyond trade pressures, Canada is also facing a declining population. Statistics Canada’s population estimates have declined for three straight quarters, and the Q2 2026 population was 0.5 per cent lower than a year earlier. A major part of this decrease has been the exit of non-permanent residents, who have declined 17 per cent over the past year.
Why the slowdown matters for glazing
For glazing contractors, nonresidential construction starts are a forward-looking indicator. Curtain wall, storefront and entrance system packages are typically tendered after structural work begins, so a first-half decline in starts now translates into fewer bid opportunities two to four quarters out. The fact that seven of nine categories weakened means the slowdown is not limited to one asset class; the broad decline touches many project types that drive glazing volume. ConstructConnect did not break out glazing-specific data, but the broad trend leaves little room for optimism in the near term.
Because glazing packages are typically tendered after structural work begins, the first-half slowdown in starts will not show up immediately in bid boards. Many contractors are still pricing work from projects that broke ground in 2025. The pressure will build in 2027, when the start of 2026's slower project pipeline reaches the glazing stage. This lag gives fabricators and installers a short window to rebalance their estimating and production capacity, but it also means the full impact of the current slowdown has not yet been felt.
The population decline compounds the demand problem. Fewer people means less demand for residential, education and commercial construction, ConstructConnect noted. A falling population could also weigh on available labour for the construction industry, which has seen only a 1.5 per cent increase in employment over the past year. For glazing contractors already competing for qualified installers, a tighter labour pool may persist even as project volumes soften. Canadian glazing firms must continue to work within NAFS and CSA A440 performance standards, which means qualified crews remain essential regardless of market conditions.
Federal support could lift the second half
Despite the weak start, ConstructConnect sees positive signals. The current federal government has focused on directing investment toward major projects, with the Major Projects Office (MPO) playing a key role since its inception last year. Several MPO-referred projects broke ground last year, lifting total nonresidential construction starts significantly in the back half of 2025. Something similar could happen in the second half of 2026, as several MPO-referred projects are again nearing groundbreaking, including the Ksi Lisims liquefied natural gas project.
In addition, full-year forecasts for total nonresidential starts remain above levels seen before the 2024 and 2025 jump, and starts are forecast to return to growth as the economy strengthens. For glazing manufacturers and installers, that suggests the current slowdown may be a timing issue rather than a structural collapse, although the exact timing of a recovery remains uncertain. Industrial projects such as Ksi Lisims LNG typically carry large glazing packages for control buildings and administrative facilities, though the analysis does not quantify that demand.
The Major Projects Office pipeline is particularly relevant to glazing contractors working on institutional and industrial projects. Large public buildings, transit stations and energy facilities tend to include substantial glazing scopes even when total square footage is lower than high-rise residential. The analysis does not break out projected glazing volumes, but the mix of MPO-referred work points to continued demand in select sectors.
Planning around a softer market
For construction firms, including glazing contractors, a targeted approach to business planning will matter more than usual. ConstructConnect advised that firms will need to carefully target the categories and geographies that are seeing growth to capture opportunities. In Canada, glazing firms working under NAFS and CSA A440 standards may need to shift resources toward sectors still moving, such as energy, transportation, export and community construction supported by public investment, while avoiding overexposure to categories tied to population growth.
Firms that have relied on high-volume residential towers should review their mix, because population decline reduces demand for residential, education and commercial construction. Commercial and institutional starts may hold up better in regions tied to public investment. The ConstructConnect analysis suggests that geography will matter as much as category, although it does not provide a provincial breakdown.
The analysis does not specify which glazing segments will recover first, but the overall message is clear: headline declines hide uneven demand. Contractors that track category-level data and align their estimating capacity with stronger regions will be better positioned as the market adjusts. For now, the $26.6 billion first-half total is a warning sign, not a collapse—but it is one that Canadian glazing firms cannot afford to ignore.